PROBABILITY, NOT PROMISES
A lottery ticket costs money. Bitcoin solo mining lets your computer generate millions of attempts every second — but how do the odds actually compare?
Illustrative 10 MH/s input, not a measurement of your computer. Enter your own hashrate.
Don’t know your hashrate? Test your computer ↗
Statistical expected time to a block: . An average, not a countdown.
Past hashes do not improve the probability of the next hash. Constant hashrate and difficulty assumed; a qualifying hash still needs a valid, accepted block.
ONE PLAY VS. A WINDOW OF COMPUTATION
One play · one drawing
1 in 292,201,338≈0.000000342% chance of the jackpotNot the chance of any prize. A ticket with multiple plays is not a single play.
Official Powerball odds ↗Verified October 1, 2026At least one qualifying block
Waiting for network dataEnter a hashrate to compare probabilities.
At least one qualifying block
Waiting for network dataEnter a hashrate to compare probabilities.
Bitcoin estimates assume constant hashrate and difficulty.
This compares event probabilities — not equal prize amounts, equal spending, profitability or recommendations to gamble. A Powerball jackpot and a Bitcoin block reward are different rewards.
THE SCALE OF THE EXPERIMENT
“Tickets” are an analogy for distinct hashes, not entries in a lottery. Your computer:
Enter your hashrate to see what these attempts mean.
A USEFUL ANALOGY. NOT THE SAME THING.
Each distinct block-header hash can be treated as a new independent attempt to meet the network target. At 10 MH/s, that is 10,000,000 attempts every second. Repeating an identical header does not create a new chance.
Bitcoin Web Miner is free to use. You don’t buy lottery tickets or dedicated mining hardware, but mining uses your computer and electricity.
Bitcoin’s target is extraordinarily difficult to meet. Millions of hashes per second are tiny beside the collective output of specialized ASIC miners. The calculator uses the network difficulty, not a promise that somebody finds a block every ten minutes.
More runtime creates more attempts and a greater cumulative chance. It does not improve the next hash’s chance. There is no accumulated progress: a block could appear on the first attempt, or not appear even after billions of years at a tiny hashrate.
There is no progress bar to a Bitcoin block.
For more detail, use the Bitcoin solo mining calculator or read why mining time is not a countdown.
λ = H × t / (D × 2³²)
P = −expm1(−λ)H = hashes/second · t = seconds
D = Bitcoin network difficulty
Expected hashes per block ≈ D × 2³²
The numerically stable Poisson calculation keeps extremely small probabilities visible. Year-long results hold today’s difficulty constant: scenarios, not forecasts.
Not to try this experiment. You need an existing computer, a modern browser and, for live mining, a public Bitcoin payout address. A local hashrate test does not require an address.
No private keys, seed phrases, deposits, subscriptions or lottery tickets. You choose your CPU worker count and can stop at any time. Browsers may throttle or suspend background tabs; leaving a tab open does not guarantee continuous hashing.
Browser mining is not economically competitive with ASIC mining. Treat it as an experiment, not a source of income. Read what a PC or laptop can actually do.
FREE TO USE. NOT COST-FREE TO RUN.
The odds are terrible.Real hashes · public address only · no registration
| What changes? | Traditional lottery | Bitcoin Web Miner |
|---|---|---|
| Upfront ticket purchase | Yes | No |
| Dedicated hardware required | No | No |
| Uses your computer to generate attempts | No | Yes |
| New attempts continuously | No · scheduled drawings | While actively hashing |
| Odds | Fixed by the game’s rules | Hashrate, duration & network difficulty |
| Potential prize / reward | Depends on the lottery | Block subsidy + transaction fees, before pool fees |
| Electricity on your device | No meaningful computation required | Yes · CPU load and heat |
| Guaranteed return | No | No |
Bitcoin mining is not a lottery product. “Lottery mining” is an analogy commonly used to explain the probabilistic nature of solo mining. This page is educational, not gambling or investment advice.
THE QUESTIONS THAT MATTER
Only as a mathematical analogy: each distinct hash is an independent attempt to meet a target. Bitcoin mining is proof-of-work, not a lottery product or a ticket sale. The systems have different costs, rewards and rules.
Theoretically, yes. A CPU can calculate real SHA-256d hashes, and a valid attempt can meet the network target. With a browser’s hashrate, the probability is extraordinarily small. A candidate must still be submitted and accepted; an ordinary pool share is not a Bitcoin block.
No. Bitcoin Web Miner has no tickets, deposits or subscriptions. It is free to use, but running it consumes electricity and CPU resources on a computer you already own.
No. Running longer gives you more attempts in total, increasing the chance of at least one success over that interval. At an unchanged target, the probability of the next distinct hash stays the same. Past failures do not accumulate progress.
The browser flags a potential block and the backend submits the candidate through the solo pool. A share acknowledgement alone is not confirmation of a Bitcoin block. Success is shown only after block acceptance is verified. Rejected or stale candidates do not earn the block reward; chain reorganizations remain possible.
An accepted block carries the subsidy at its height plus its transaction fees, subject to the solo pool’s payout rules and third-party fee. The live card shows the base subsidy before that fee, not a promised payout. Bitcoin Web Miner does not charge a service commission. Donations are voluntary.
Never. Live mining uses only a public Bitcoin payout address. Do not enter a private key or seed phrase. You choose the CPU worker count and can stop mining at any time. A local hashrate test needs no address.