CALCULATE THE ODDS
Bitcoin Solo Mining Calculator
Calculate your real probability of finding a Bitcoin block based on your hashrate and current network difficulty.
Your hashrate. Your probability.
SHA-256dExample input. Replace it with your hardware’s measured hashrate.
Statistical expected time to find a block
This is a statistical average, not a countdown. Your next hash could theoretically find a block.
Next 1 hour
Waiting for network dataNext 24 hours
Waiting for network dataNext 30 days
Waiting for network dataNext 1 year
Waiting for network dataConstant hashrate and difficulty assumed. Past hashes do not improve the probability of the next hash.
Don't know your hashrate? Measure it with your browser
Measure my hashrate Open the miner and choose “Run a local hash test”. No address is needed for the test.
THE MATH, WITHOUT THE MYSTERY
How solo mining probability works
Each valid SHA-256d attempt has an extremely small chance of meeting Bitcoin’s network target. At a steady hashrate H, difficulty D and duration t, a Poisson model estimates the chance of at least one block.
Difficulty can change. A year-long estimate assumes today’s difficulty for the entire year, so it is a scenario, not a forecast.
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE BLOCK
λ = H × t / (D × 2³²)
P = −expm1(−λ)H in hashes/second · t in seconds
Expected hashes per block ≈ D × 2³²
What does “1 in X” mean?
It is the approximate chance of at least one block in the selected time window. A “1 in 1,000” chance is about 0.1% for that window. It does not promise a block after 1,000 windows, and it is not the probability of an individual hash.
Why hashrate matters
More hashes per second means more attempts in the same time. Ten times the hashrate reduces the statistical expected time by a factor of ten. It does not create a deadline or make individual hashes luckier.
Why solo mining is different from pool mining
In solo mining, your accepted block earns its reward, subject to any solo pool fee. Conventional payout pools distribute proceeds under their share-based rules. An accepted pool share is evidence of work; it is usually not a Bitcoin block.
Can a small miner really find a Bitcoin block?
Theoretically, yes. Any valid attempt can meet the network target. At browser or microcontroller hashrates, the chance is extraordinarily small. The reward also requires a valid block accepted into the chain; stale or rejected candidates do not count.
Wondering about mining “one BTC”? Understand block rewards and mining time →